ECB wage tracker shows slightly higher wage growth in early 2027 than in 2026

What the update shows

The European Central Bank published an updated wage tracker on 4 November 2026. The headline ECB wage tracker, which smooths one-off payments over 12 months, indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.3% in 2026 (coverage 46.2%). The tracker stands at 2.7% for the second half of 2026 (coverage 45.6%) and 2.8% for the first half of 2027 (coverage 31.8%), declining to 2.4% for the third quarter of 2027 (coverage 23.3%). The wage tracker excluding one-off payments rises from 2.6% in 2026 to an average of 2.8% for the first three quarters of 2027. The tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is 2.4% for Q3 2027, down from 2.7% for H1 2027 and for 2026 as a whole. Compared with the September 2026 data release, the headline wage tracker was revised slightly upwards for H2 2026 and H1 2027 by around 0.1 percentage points on average.

Scope, methodology and caveats

The press release sets out four ECB wage tracker indicators: the headline indicator (one-off payments smoothed over 12 months), the tracker excluding one-off payments (structural negotiated increases), the tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments, and the share of employees covered. It notes that the headline tracker is better for describing quarterly or monthly dynamics, while the unsmoothed series is better suited to yearly dynamics. The forward-looking horizon has been extended to the end of September 2027 and will be further extended to the full year of 2027 in the December 2026 data release as coverage increases. The release emphasises that the wage tracker may be subject to revision, that the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, and that the tracker does not perfectly track the indicator of negotiated wage growth, so deviations are to be expected.

Data, coverage and publication details

Employee coverage is reported at 46.2% for 2026, falling to 31.8% in the first half of 2027 and to 23.3% in the third quarter of 2027; the release notes coverage is still limited for Q3 2027 and will increase as more agreements are signed. The employee coverage for 2026 and H1 2027 is broadly similar to that recorded at the same time last year, as indicated in the November 2025 data release. The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the nine participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal. The data release following the December 2026 meeting of the ECB Governing Council will be published on 18 December 2026. For a broader assessment of wage developments, the release refers to the September 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, which indicate a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee of 3.3% in 2026.